New estimates in the Science Magazine state that by the year of 2100, the people who are seeking asylum in the European Union will increase by about 188 percent. The number predicted by them was about 660,000 and these new estimates were published on Thursday.
Anouch Missirian and Wolfram Schlenker, who are environmental economists, were the ones who arrived at these figures. They combined the asylum application data with the projections by NASA on future global warming.
This Columbia University pair looked at applications to about hundred and three EU nations that were filed from 2000 to 2014. They then compared this data with the temperature variations in the applicant’s home countries. The conclusion was that there were severe temperature fluctuations in those places due to which optimal conditions for agriculture were thrown off. This resulted in increased applications for asylum.
Schlenker said that their findings highlight the extent to which different countries are interlinked and EU is going to see increasing number of desperate fleeing people. This news comes at a time when the union is already pretty conflicted about the number of refugees it can admit.
The gases that are causing the severe climate change cross geographic borders and according to Schlenker, the developing countries are impacted more severely by this due to which humans migrate to nations that are much more resilient.
According to Solomon Hsiang, a University of California, Berkeley economist who linked the draught cycles to increasing violence says that new institutions would need to be setup to manage the flow of all the asylum seekers.
For many years various scientists have argued about the fact that human migration is going to rise due to the continued increase in global temperature. This study is just one piece of a growing scientific evidence that links climate change to human conflict and migration.